OTRSS / t'CotO / ENERGY INDEPENDENCE: Possible Or Not?

Energy Independence: Query

Is energy independence possible, and at what price?

Attentive readers know that the US/UK invasion of Iraq had nothing to do with TWOT (The War On Terror) and everything to do with control of MidEast petroleum fields. The occupation of Iraq puts (especially) US forces on top of the local oil fields, and within striking distance of everything nearby, from Libya to Russia to China. The authors of this invasion and occupation published plans over a decade ago, identifying Iraq as a necessary target, precisely because of oil. (See references to PNAC).

Let's do a mental experiment. Solar energy dealer REAL GOODS (search here) says they can sell gear to take the average household OFF THE GRID (search here) for about US$15k. The Census Bureau says (as of 2003) says there are about 111 million US households. (click here) (35k pdf) Let's do a conservative calculation. If we round the price-per-house UP and multiply, the cost of solar-powering all US households is about US$2 trillion - rather less than the total estimate for Dubya's tax cuts.

Would applying those tax cuts to producting and installing solar energy gear result in marked energy independence for the US? Somewhat. True, the US uses a LOT more energy; industry, transport, et al. But would such an investment mean that the US could stop depending on MidEastern petroleum supplies? How much would be saved on military expenditures? Could we just tell MidEast despots and insurgents to go fuck themselves? Could we leave them for China to deal with?

(The above numbers are rough. We can't install solar panel on ALL houses. Maybe the cost would be higher, although such spending would likely drive down production costs, drive up development of more efficient systems. But I think those roughly balance.)

We know that neither petroleum nor ground-based solar is a long-term solution worldwide. 'SAFE' NUKES (click here) may be a midterm answer; fusion (cold or hot) and orbital solar, or other as-yet-undeveloped technologies, may lie in our future. But for now, have we taken a (correctable) wrong turn? Can the money be better spent?

Energy Independence: Primer

Is it possible for any major nation to be energy independent?: Of course. All that is required is a balance of resources and expenditures, availability and consumption. What's necessary and difficult is maintaining the WILL to balance one's energy budget.
Is it enough to save energy?: No, not even by Saving Energy Without Derision (click here). You need an integrated program of energy conservation and production.
What are the techniques of energy independence?
How can a nation guarantee long-term energy independence?: Again, it's a matter of discipline and creativity. Growing populations and increasing economic status always creates demands for more energy. Your usage must be ever more efficient, and new sources must be found. Invest in renewables and fusion, and teach your people to share. Save water; shower with a friend.
Aren't there physical limits to energy efficiency and independence?: Yes. When a nation reaches those limits, it must fail, either by merging with another nation, or self-destructing. Even with a global superstate, limits will be reached when energy expenditures cause the biosphere to implode.
How can we get around those physical limitations?: Get off-planet. Earth is too small for humanity, and too vulnerable to catastrophe. If you want to survive, you'll have to emigrate. Start building the starships now.